The Agent Bets https://theagentbets.com/ Independent news for the prediction-markets economy. en-us Sat, 03 Oct 2026 17:00:16 +0000 Prediction markets near $20B in record late-September week as football drives volume https://theagentbets.com/articles/prediction-markets-record-september-nfl.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/prediction-markets-record-september-nfl.html Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International combined for about $19.46 billion in the week ended Sept. 27, with football season driving record weekly and quarterly trading figures. Market Data Coinbase blames Kalshi for botched Michigan settlement, pays customers twice https://theagentbets.com/articles/coinbase-prediction-markets-early.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/coinbase-prediction-markets-early.html Sat, 03 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Coinbase blamed Kalshi for a botched settlement on the Western Michigan-Michigan game and said it would pay affected customers in full without clawing back mistaken payouts. Industry Plaee partners with ProphetX as white-label prediction infrastructure gains ground https://theagentbets.com/articles/white-label-prediction-market-infrastructure-race.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/white-label-prediction-market-infrastructure-race.html Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Plaee signed a technology partnership with CFTC-regulated ProphetX, announced September 30, letting operators launch prediction markets on white-label rails. The deal follows the Fanatics-Crypto.com model and contrasts with DraftKings' owned DKeX exchange. Industry Senate scrutiny of event contracts builds: a Texas hearing and a demand for a federal one https://theagentbets.com/articles/senate-hearing-event-contracts.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/senate-hearing-event-contracts.html Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Texas lawmakers grilled Kalshi at a September 15 hearing, and all 11 Senate Banking Committee Democrats are demanding a public federal hearing on prediction markets. Regulation Polymarket's US re-entry runs through polymarket.us as the federal picture evolves https://theagentbets.com/articles/polymarket-us-reentry-polymarket-us.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/polymarket-us-reentry-polymarket-us.html Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Polymarket.com stays view-only for Americans while the company pursues US re-entry through its regulated polymarket.us venue. Regulation 2026 midterm trading tops $750M as venues and media lean in https://theagentbets.com/articles/midterm-contracts-2026-listings.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/midterm-contracts-2026-listings.html Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Kalshi and Polymarket have handled more than $750 million in combined 2026 election trading, per CNN, as CBS News names Kalshi its midterm prediction-market sponsor. Market Data Hyperliquid opens HIP-4 outcome markets to outside builders https://theagentbets.com/articles/hyperliquid-hip-4-outcome-markets.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/hyperliquid-hip-4-outcome-markets.html Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Hyperliquid opened its HIP-4 prediction-market framework to outside builders in late August, after reporting around $100 million in outcome volume in its first full month. Volume roughly tripled after the change, though most of it ran through a rebate campaign. Venues Piper Sandler sees Robinhood prediction markets nearing a $1B annualized pace on NFL volume https://theagentbets.com/articles/robinhood-prediction-markets-nfl-growth.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/robinhood-prediction-markets-nfl-growth.html Wed, 30 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Robinhood's prediction markets generated $156M in Q2, and Piper Sandler sees roughly $320M more from September through December on NFL-season volume. Venues Onchain venues carve out a growing share of prediction-market volume https://theagentbets.com/articles/onchain-venues-limitless-growth.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/onchain-venues-limitless-growth.html Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Limitless grew roughly 15x from $109 million in September 2025 to $1.66 billion in April 2026 on Base, and its US entity has applied to the CFTC for regulated exchange status. Market Data Fanatics folds prediction markets into a single app as it moves to own its exchange rails https://theagentbets.com/articles/fanatics-markets-launch-24-states.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/fanatics-markets-launch-24-states.html Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Fanatics folded prediction markets into a single sportsbook, casino and markets app on September 2, while moving to acquire its own CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse. Venues Sixth Circuit rules against Kalshi as Missouri targets six venues over sports contracts https://theagentbets.com/articles/kalshi-state-challenge-sports-contracts.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/kalshi-state-challenge-sports-contracts.html Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The Sixth Circuit ruled Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, and Missouri issued cease-and-desist notices to six prediction market venues. Regulation Public launches AI-agent prediction-market trading with Kalshi https://theagentbets.com/articles/public-ai-agent-trading-kalshi.html https://theagentbets.com/articles/public-ai-agent-trading-kalshi.html Fri, 25 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Public's September 24 launch, via a partnership with Kalshi, lets members trade event contracts directly or have AI agents trade on their behalf and use market probabilities as portfolio signals. Industry