Prediction markets set another weekend record on October 10-11, generating 10.4 billion dollars in notional trading volume across tracked platforms, up 11 percent from the previous weekend, according to TickerTracker data reported by Gambling Insider on October 12. DefiRate, a second tracker, put the same weekend at approximately 10.5 billion dollars, Gambling Insider reported.
Kalshi supplied most of the total. Kalshi's own daily market data, which runs on US Eastern days, showed 3.91 billion dollars in notional volume on Saturday, Oct 10, and 3.96 billion dollars on Sunday, Oct 11, both above the previous daily high of 3.68 billion dollars set on Sunday, Oct 4, Bitcoin.com reported on Oct 13. Both days ran about 61 percent above the corresponding days of the NFL opening weekend, and Kalshi has now passed 3 billion dollars on seven days, all of them since September 19, according to Bitcoin.com.
Parlay-style combos supplied most of the growth, according to Bitcoin.com's analysis of the Kalshi data. Combos accounted for 2.80 billion dollars of Saturday, October 10 volume, or 71.6 percent, and 2.75 billion dollars of Sunday, October 11 volume, or 69.4 percent. Saturday's total was 459 million dollars higher than on Oct 3, with combos up 400 million dollars of that increase; Sunday's total was 279 million dollars higher than on Oct 4, with combos up 218 million dollars, Bitcoin.com reported.
Much of that combo volume came from long shots. About 1.9 billion of the 2.8 billion combo contracts traded on Saturday, October 10, and 1.6 billion of the 2.75 billion traded on Sunday, October 11, sat in combos whose Yes side never traded at 1 cent or more that day, so buyers paid a fraction of a cent per contract while the other side funded most of the 1 dollar payout, according to Bitcoin.com. One 13-leg combo on NFL winners traded 12.1 million contracts on Sunday, October 11 at Yes prices between 0.01 cent and 0.44 cent: buyers paid about 13,800 dollars for them, the other side put up about 12.1 million dollars, and the combo lost, Bitcoin.com reported. TickerTracker separately identified a football combination containing 453 legs over the weekend, according to Gambling Insider.
The rest of the field grew more slowly. Polymarket US generated 1.18 billion dollars over the October 10-11 weekend, up 13.2 percent from the preceding weekend, according to TickerTracker figures reported by Gambling Insider, while DefiRate estimated Polymarket US at approximately 1.22 billion dollars and DraftKings Predictions at 386 million dollars. TickerTracker put DkEx at 391 million dollars, Novig at 332 million dollars, Crypto.com subsidiary CDNA at 316 million dollars and Underdog at 196 million dollars, Gambling Insider reported. The prior weekend's record had been 9.43 billion dollars across platforms, with Kalshi at 3.45 billion dollars on Saturday and 3.68 billion dollars on Sunday, according to Aldrin Research figures reported by Covers on Oct 5.
The trackers do not agree on the headline numbers. TickerTracker reported 7.87 billion dollars in Kalshi event-contract volume for the weekend and DefiRate approximately 7.9 billion dollars, while KalshiData reported more than 8 billion dollars, including 4.29 billion dollars on Sunday alone, a figure that also counts perpetual futures, according to Gambling Insider. The combo share differs by source too: TickerTracker's roughly 70 percent estimate for both days sits against The Block's approximately 66 percent for Saturday, October 10, Gambling Insider reported. Notional volume counts each contract at its full 1 dollar payout, which buyer and seller fund between them according to the price traded, Bitcoin.com noted.
Macquarie's analysts measure the industry differently. In a research note seen by Gambling Insider, analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir estimated September taker volume at 20.1 billion dollars with Kalshi holding a 67 percent share, and raised their 2026 US taker volume forecast to 186.8 billion dollars, up from a previous estimate of 169 billion dollars, according to Gambling Insider and GamblingNews. Macquarie measures taker volume rather than headline notional volume, which the analysts say counts prediction market activity approximately three times over, Gambling Insider reported, and the bank cited customizable same-game parlays as one driver of the upgrade, according to GamblingNews.
Analysis: The record is real as an activity measure, but its composition is the story. A weekend in which roughly 70 percent of the leading venue's volume is combos, and most of the growth comes from contracts priced under 1 cent where one side risks a fraction of a cent per dollar of counted volume, measures product design as much as participation. That lands one day after IG Group chief executive Breon Corcoran told analysts the sector should be judged on net revenue rather than notional records. Watch two things next: whether any major venue starts publishing taker or fee figures alongside notional, as Macquarie's framework implies, and whether the trackers converge on a single counting standard, because until they do, every new record will arrive with an asterisk sized somewhere between 7.87 and 8 billion dollars.