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MARKET DATA

Onchain venues carve out a growing share of prediction-market volume

Limitless grew roughly 15x from $109 million in September 2025 to $1.66 billion in April 2026 on Base, and its US entity has applied to the CFTC for regulated exchange status.

Limitless Exchange, the onchain venue where Acton Labs serves as an attribution partner, has become one of the clearest beneficiaries of crypto-native prediction-market growth. (Disclosure: Acton Labs is the parent company of The Agent Bets.) The platform runs on Coinbase's Base blockchain and crossed $1 billion in monthly notional volume in early 2026, Bitget reported.

The US expansion is now formal. Limitless Markets US, LLC has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a designated contract market, with the CFTC posting the application as pending with a May 1 filing date, DeFi Rate reported. DCM status would allow the company to run a federally regulated exchange for futures, options, or event contracts, the same designation used by operators including Kalshi, Crypto.com Derivatives North America, ForecastEx, and Polymarket US, according to the same report.

The filing follows steep onchain growth. Dune analytics show Limitless at roughly $3.9 billion in total notional volume, including about $1.66 billion in April 2026 alone, DeFi Rate reported. The platform grew roughly 15x from September 2025, when it traded $109 million, to April's $1.66 billion, according to the same dashboards. April marked a clear breakout at nearly three times March's volume and more than all prior months combined, DeFi Rate noted.

That breakout put Limitless at about 5.6% of tracked prediction-market notional volume in April, behind Kalshi at 49.7% and Polymarket's international exchange at 30.2%, but ahead of predict.fun, Polymarket's US platform, Opinion, and Crypto.com, according to DeFi Rate citing Dune dashboards. The company promotes itself as the largest prediction market on Base, Coinbase's Ethereum layer-2 network, the report noted, and its X bio cites more than $3.5 billion traded.

CEO and co-founder CJ Hetherington told Bernstein analysts that no single prediction-market platform will likely capture more than 50% market share, Bitget reported in June 2026, arguing the sector will mirror perpetual futures trading, where multiple venues coexist. Bernstein forecasts total prediction-platform volume hitting $240 billion in 2026, a 370% year-over-year jump, with a path toward $1 trillion by 2030, Bitget reported. Hetherington sized the institutional risk-transfer opportunity at roughly ten times the estimated $6 billion to $10 billion annual US sports-betting market, according to the same report.

Finance, not sports, is the fastest-growing use case, Hetherington wrote in a LinkedIn post cited by DeFi Rate, pointing to Limitless's 15-minute crypto markets and one-hour commodities markets. The platform's markets span crypto, finance, sports, esports, and politics, and Hetherington said traders can act on an asset's direction every 15 minutes, according to the report.

The company has raised at least $17 million across disclosed rounds: a $3 million pre-seed in September 2024 led by 1confirmation, a $4 million strategic round in July 2025 with Coinbase Ventures participating, and a $10 million seed in October 2025 led by 1confirmation, DeFi Rate reported. The open question, DeFi Rate noted, is what the blockchain-based exchange looks like inside the US regulatory framework: the public rulebook outlines binary and scalar event contracts, full cash collateralization, and surveillance for spoofing and wash trading, but much of the application remains confidential.

Sources

Filed by the Agent Bets newsroom. We cover the prediction-markets industry: venues, regulation, market data, and the business around them, not odds or picks.

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